Selected Publications

In this paper we study what are the main drivers of regime shifts globally. We analyze 25 types of regime shifts and conclude that climate change and food production related variables are driving ecosystems world wide towards alternative stable states.

In this paper we study how to manage regime shifts in marine ecosystems. Our main finding is that managing few key drivers is not enough to avoid regime shifts, one has to embrace multi causality. Our lessons are important for places where data is scarce or monitoring programs are not in place.
Phil Trans R Soc B

Recent Publications

Most of my publications are open access. If a pdf link is not provided here please email me and will share it with you.

More Publications

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Recent Posts

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of ecosystems. Examples include the shift from forest to savannah, the shift from coral dominated to algae dominated reefs, or the weakening of the Indian monsoon. The regime shifts database is an open online repository of information about regime shifts around the world. It is like a Wikipedia of regime shifts, where scholars have been reviewing and synthesising scientific papers and translating them into a comprehensive collection of literature reviews that summarises the main causes, consequences and mechanisms underlying these phenomena.



Behavioural experiments in social-ecological systems with thresholds

How does people behave when dealing with situations pervaded by thresholds? Imagine you’re a fisherman whose livelihoods depend on a resource on the brink to collapse, what would you do? and what do you think others will do?

Cascading effects

Imagine a regime shift occurs. How do you think it effects the likelihood of other systems tipping over?

Hacking Sustainable Diets

What is a sustainable diet?

Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene

What are the main drivers and consequences of regime shifts globally?

Targeting Agricultural Innovations

Mapping social-ecological systems in the Volta Basin

Upscaling the Resilience Assessment: comparing cases in the Arctic

Juan explores qualitative methods (QCA) for upscaling the resilience assessment to large regions operationalising the concept of adaptive capacity to better understand what conditions enhances community resilience in the Arctic. Learn more in the Arctic Resilience Report. Picture by Markus Trienke - travelling the Inuit way


  • Methods for studying social-ecological systems (forthcoming at PECS - Mexico)
  • Regime Shifts (2010-2015) at the Stockholm Resilience Centre