Juan C. Rocha, Garry Peterson, Örjan Bodin & Simon Levin
Whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another, or simply correlate at distant places
Whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another, or simply correlate at distant places
~45% of the regime shift couplings analyzed present structural dependencies in the form of one-way interactions for the domino effect or two-way interactions for hidden feedbacks
Aquatic regime shifts tend to have and share more drivers. The most co-occurring drivers are related to food production, climate change & urbanisation. 36% of pair-wise combinations are solely coupled by sharing drivers
Evidence of cross-scale interactions for domino effects was only found in space but not in time. The maximum number of pathways found was 4, and the variables that produce most domino effects relate to climate, nutrients and water transport
Most hidden feedbacks occur in terrestrial and earth systems. Key variables that belong to many of these hidden feedbacks are related to climate, fires, erosion, agriculture and urbanisation
“Cascading regime shifts within & across scales” by Rocha et al. argues “How & when nonlinear change can be transmitted across
— William C. Clark (@william_c_clark) December 22, 2018
space & time in the Earth system should be considered in assessments & management of future environmental change.” Yes, but how? https://t.co/d05NI8CYlp pic.twitter.com/jsBEpPjI2d
Lenton et al. On the orgin of planetary-scale tipping points. TREE (2013)
Steffen et al.Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS (2018).
“…the use of qualitative information inevitably has limitations […] it can only provide a catalog of the possible”
Rocha J. 2021. Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss. ArXiv. doi:2107.03307
Questions?
email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se/presentations/cascading2021
paper (free OA at): Rocha et al 2018 Science
pre-print: Rocha 2021 ArXiv
Stockholm Resilience Centre
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Drivers sharing is more context-specific; in this case, regime shifts occurring in similar ecosystem types or land uses will be subject to relatively similar sets of drivers
Domino effects will be mostly dominated by connections from regime shifts that occur at larger spatial scales with slower temporal dynamics to regime shifts that operate at smaller spatial scales with faster temporal dynamics
Hidden feedbacks will occur when scales match (both in space and time), because for a new feedback to emerge they need to be somewhat aligned in the scale at which the process operate
Regime shifts were more likely to share drivers when they occurred in similar land uses, but not necessarily under the same ecosystem types.
One-way directional interactions or domino effects are common but not exclusive to aquatic regime shifts, it highlights the role of water transport and tend to emerge between regime shifts whose dynamics occur at similar temporal scales (but not spatial ones).
Two-way interconnections or hidden feedbacks are more common in terrestrial systems, they occur often between regime shifts that match spatial scales and impact similar ecosystem processes.
