The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to perform an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions among global change drivers of regime shifts. Causal loops diagrams were used to collect a set of feedback mechanisms underlying abrupt change dynamics in 11 regime shifts. In order to prioritize drivers and to map out possible causal pathways we used network analysis. Agricultural processes, global warming, biodiversity loss, demographic and economic drivers are the main causes of regime shifts. Based on the analysis of 400 pathways, we intuitively suggest five types of cascading effects between regime shifts. Regime shifts dramatically affect the provision of ecosystem services and might undermine the achievement of the first Millennium Development Goal: reduction of hunger and poverty.

Type
Publication
MSc Thesis
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