Quantifying cascading effects in trade networks

A case study on salmon



Juan C. Rocha

Telecoupling and teleconnections

“human actions in one place may create unintended consequences elsewhere”

  • By 2016 salmon trade accounted for 11.6B US$:
    • 93 countries
    • 406 bilateral relationships
  • In 2016 toxic algae bloom “red tide” killed 20% of Chile’s salmon:
    • 27M salmon = 70M pounds
    • >300 whales
    • 40k tons sardines
    • >800M dollars lost

Theory: what’s an attractor or manifold?

Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)

Theory: Taken’s theorem

Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)

Method: convergent cross-mapping

Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)

Method: convergent cross-mapping

Sugihara et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science (2012)