Marine Arctic Resilience Adaptations and Tranformations

MARAT

Juan C. Rocha
Susa Niiranen, Jean-Sébastien Moore, Kevin Berry
NN, Marianne Falardeu-Côté, NN
Anne-Sophie Crépin, Elena Bennett, Garry Peterson

How can Arctic communities respond to these social and ecological challenges?


Will they adapt and continue with their traditional livelihoods, or transform towards new social-ecological configurations?


What strategies can help them build resilience or transform?

Assessing changes in Arctic marine environments and the adaptive and transformative capacities of coastal communities to those changes

Developing resilience assessment tools that are scalable to the Arctic region

1. Modelling the response of marine food webs to climate and fishing pressures

2. Assessing the social-ecological implications of changing marine food webs and fisheries in Nunavut

  • Arctic char changing food preferences and areas
  • Implications of changing food webs for fisheries
  • How can ILK and scientific knowledge inform adaptive co-management?
  • Develop metrics for species resilience to changes in food webs + future scenarios
  • Knowledge co-production with hunters and gatherers org, fishers coop, and Inuit Elders
  • Qualitative insights -> modelling

3. Assessing the resilience of salmon dependent communities to climate change and the genetic erosion from hatcheries in Alaska

  • Wild versus domesticated salmon: genetic erosion.
  • Genetic diversity of wild salmon = adaptations to a wide range of conditions
  • Remotness, risk, and profitability = overstocking domestic salmon
  • Bioeconomic models: Theory of second-best and market failures

4. Developing tools for assessing adaptive and transformative capacities of Arctic communities

Previously…

Berkes et al 2003 Navigating SES
Carson & Peterson 2016 Arctic Resilience Report

Case studies

Necessary and sufficient conditions

What makes a system resilient?

Communities with higher capacity to self-organise were more likely to remain resilient

  • What are existing relationships of knowlege exchange between Arctic communities?
  • Twitter: reconstruct community networks
  • Lit review & QCA N >> 25
  • ERGMS Assess diversity of livelihoods
  • ABM Biological and social diversity. Target social evolutionary perspectives.
  • What are good proxies of adaptations and transformations?

Tack | Gracias

Questions?


email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se

Stockholm Resilience Centre
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