Interacting tipping points and Earth stewardship



Juan C. Rocha

Forest to savanna

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Coral transitions

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Fisheries collapse

Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems

Can regime shifts be interconnected?

How crossing a tipping point could increase the likelihood of other ecosystems tipping over

Conceptual and theoretical work

Lenton et al 2019 Nature

Modelling and climate centered work. Are there other mechanisms?

Regime Shifts Database

www.regimeshifts.org

Source: Regime Shifts Database

A worked example

example

Cascading effects

~45% of the regime shift couplings analyzed present structural dependencies in the form of one-way interactions for the domino effect or two-way interactions for hidden feedbacks

Rocha, J. et al 2018. Science

Driver sharing

Aquatic regime shifts tend to have and share more drivers. The most co-occurring drivers are related to food production, climate change & urbanisation. 36% of pair-wise combinations are solely coupled by sharing drivers

Rocha et al. 2015. PlosOne

Domino effects

Evidence of cross-scale interactions for domino effects was only found in space but not in time. The maximum number of pathways found was 4, and the variables that produce most domino effects relate to climate, nutrients and water transport

Hidden feedbacks

Most hidden feedbacks occur in terrestrial and earth systems. Key variables that belong to many of these hidden feedbacks are related to climate, fires, erosion, agriculture and urbanisation

Why does it matter? Earth Stewardship

  • How tipping points are interconnected can amplify or dampen cascading effects: network structure matters
  • It can empower countries, cities or businesses to do their part: emphasize agency
  • It can re-draw the geopolitical map of the world: with whom do you need to cooperate to avoid synchronous crises?

Regime shifts can be interconnected

  • Climate is a central mechanism, but not the only one. Other mechanisms can trigger tipping cascades earlier than climate
  • Multiple mechanisms means multiple opportunities for intervention
  • Empirical evidence is missing: which connections are more relevant? what interventions has potential to slow down tipping cascades?

Rocha et al 2018 Science

Tack | Gracias

Questions?


email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se/presentations/interacting_tipping