Interacting tipping points and Earth stewardship
Forest to savanna
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems
Coral transitions
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems
Fisheries collapse
Regime shifts are large, abrupt and persistence critical transitions in the function and structure of (eco)systems
Can regime shifts be interconnected?
How crossing a tipping point could increase the likelihood of other ecosystems tipping over
Conceptual and theoretical work
- Tipping can hop between systems: X→Y→Z
Brummit 2015 - Coupled tipping systems do not leave early warning signals Dekker 2018
- Some network motifs (feedforward loops) can destabilize tipping cascades Krönke 2020, Wunderling 2020
Modelling and climate centered work. Are there other mechanisms?
Regime Shifts Database
- To provide a high quality synthesis of different types of regime shifts in SES
- To facilitate comparison
- Focus: regime shifts that have large impacts on ecosystem services i.e. matter to people
- Target audience: Scientist, assessment processes, educators, practitioners, policy-makers
Source: Regime Shifts Database
A worked example
Cascading effects
~45% of the regime shift couplings analyzed present structural dependencies in the form of one-way interactions for the domino effect or two-way interactions for hidden feedbacks
Driver sharing
Aquatic regime shifts tend to have and share more drivers. The most co-occurring drivers are related to food production, climate change & urbanisation. 36% of pair-wise combinations are solely coupled by sharing drivers
Domino effects
Evidence of cross-scale interactions for domino effects was only found in space but not in time. The maximum number of pathways found was 4, and the variables that produce most domino effects relate to climate, nutrients and water transport
Hidden feedbacks
Most hidden feedbacks occur in terrestrial and earth systems. Key variables that belong to many of these hidden feedbacks are related to climate, fires, erosion, agriculture and urbanisation
Why does it matter? Earth Stewardship
- How tipping points are interconnected can amplify or dampen cascading effects: network structure matters
- It can empower countries, cities or businesses to do their part: emphasize agency
- It can re-draw the geopolitical map of the world: with whom do you need to cooperate to avoid synchronous crises?
Regime shifts can be interconnected
- Climate is a central mechanism, but not the only one. Other mechanisms can trigger tipping cascades earlier than climate
- Multiple mechanisms means multiple opportunities for intervention
- Empirical evidence is missing: which connections are more relevant? what interventions has potential to slow down tipping cascades?
Where regime shifts are likely to occur?
Poster: Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss
Rocha 2022 ERL
Tack | Gracias
Questions?
email: juan.rocha@su.se
twitter: @juanrocha
slides: juanrocha.se/presentations/interacting_tipping
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Interacting tipping points and Earth stewardship
Juan C. Rocha
